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	<title>Nick Tammaro</title>
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	<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com</link>
	<description>Handicapper</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 15 May 2013 22:06:43 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Preakness recent history makes Orb look even tougher</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/preakness-recent-history-makes-orb-look-even-tougher/</link>
		<comments>http://www.nicktammaro.com/preakness-recent-history-makes-orb-look-even-tougher/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 May 2013 22:06:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Handicapping]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1169</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[All eyes are going to be on Pimlico Race Course this weekend, as the Preakness will take place on Saturday afternoon.  Orb is expected to go postward as a heavy favorite, as his stiffest competition from the Kentucky Derby will be resting in their stalls when he enters the gate in Baltimore. The most notable [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>All eyes are going to be on Pimlico Race Course this weekend, as the Preakness will take place on Saturday afternoon.  Orb is expected to go postward as a heavy favorite, as his stiffest competition from the Kentucky Derby will be resting in their stalls when he enters the gate in Baltimore.</p>
<p>The most notable new shooter for Orb to tackle in the Preakness is Departing.  A consistent son of war Front, Departing enters the Preakness off of a smashing win at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby.  He rated comfortably just off the pace while wide that day, swooped in when ready, took over and drew clear.  The other notable non-Derby competitor is Govenor Charlie, who has been off since winning the Sunland Derby.  On the topic of these two, note that no horse who has been off for more than 21 days has won the Preakness since Red Bullet 13 years ago.</p>
<p>There are two horses in the Preakness who finished towards the back of the pack in the Kentucky Derby.  They are Itsmyluckyday (15<sup>th</sup>) and Goldencents (17<sup>th</sup>).  No horse since Louis Quatorze 17 years ago has won the Preakness after finishing worse than 10<sup>th</sup> in the Derby.  This statistic has a lot do with the fact that a 14-day turnaround is awfully quick for a horse who clearly had something go wrong.</p>
<p>Louis Quatorze is notable as well, because he is the last horse to win the Preakness after having the lead at every point of call.  Shackleford was very close to the pace two years ago, but he rated just off of Flashpoint.  The Preakness rewards horses who can finish, as the taxing distance and configuration lends itself to strong early gallops.</p>
<p>All of these things items seem to work in Orb’s favor, as he has no distance limitations whatsoever, and should benefit from an expected solid early pace.  He has the versatility to stay closer to the pace if it is a tad slower, and that makes him strictly the one to beat.</p>
<p>The 2013 Preakness does not seem like a very appealing race from a betting perspective.  Other than the multi-race plays, it might be best to sit back as a fan and watch Orb chase history in Maryland.  Best of luck!</p>
<p><em>Follow Nick on Twitter @NTamm1215</em></p>
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		<title>How 9 became 0</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/how-9-became-0/</link>
		<comments>http://www.nicktammaro.com/how-9-became-0/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 May 2013 15:09:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Handicapping]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1166</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In early March, it seemed reasonable to think that Bob Baffert could have as many as 9 potential Kentucky Derby starters.  One by one, his horses fell off the radar, culminating in Monday’s announcement that he would not have a Derby starter.  Let’s take a look at how 9 became 0. After his win in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>In early March, it seemed reasonable to think that Bob Baffert could have as many as 9 potential Kentucky Derby starters.  One by one, his horses fell off the radar, culminating in Monday’s announcement that he would not have a Derby starter.  Let’s take a look at how 9 became 0.</p>
<p>After his win in the Southwest, Super Ninety Nine was among Baffert’s best Derby hopefuls.  He went back to Oaklawn for the Rebel and tired badly late after chasing the pace.  The SA Derby was his shot at redemption, and he once again weakened in crunch time.  Sprints are in his future.</p>
<p>Flashback’s narrow mis in the San Felipe was his best race to date and seemed to set him up as one of California’s best Derby prospects.  He was injured coming out of the SA Derby and won’t be seen anytime soon.</p>
<p>Code West narrowly missed in the Risen Star and needed just a 3<sup>rd</sup> place finish or better in the Louisiana Derby.  He missed the mark by tiring badly late, taking the Derby out of the equation.</p>
<p>Shakin It Up went to Sunland for his first stakes try in a route race.  He finished fourth behind stablemate Govenor Charlie in that race, and never really threatened for a placing.</p>
<p>Tiz the Truth scored a romping maiden win the same day Flashback won the Robert Lewis.  He ran into a myriad of injury problems and is currently sidelined.</p>
<p>Baffert rushed Power Broker back to contest the SA Derby in his first start of 2013.  He was a total no-show, checking in a well-beaten fifth at 5-1.  He is still training for a 2<sup>nd</sup> start of the year.</p>
<p>Den’s Legacy had numerous opportunities to stamp himself a Derby candidate, but he came up empty in each try.  He is a useful horse who has picked up a number of checks, but whether he is legitimately graded stakes caliber is still a question.</p>
<p>War Academy was supposed to be a last ditch Derby candidate after winning an allowance race in March.  The Arkansas Derby was his Derby prep, and he went off as the favorite in a field of nine.  He was pulled up on the backstretch and is in training at Churchill Downs for a possible start in the Preakness.</p>
<p>Govenor Charlie was supposed to be Baffert’s lone Derby starter.  He won the Sunland Derby in late March and was training for the Run for the Roses early last month.  An injury to his foot derailed those plans, and the reports on his training recently at Churchill have been ghastly.</p>
<p>It has been a difficult spring for Baffert, even with Game on Dude starting his season 3-0.  He will certainly be back on the 3YO scene very soon, but this was as deflating a series as you’ll see for a Hall of Famer of Baffert’s caliber.</p>
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		<title>Belmont Preview</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/belmont-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://www.nicktammaro.com/belmont-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 May 2013 15:08:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1164</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Spring is in the air, even if temperatures across the country are well below average.  There’s no better sign of the new season being upon us than racing in New York shifting to beautiful Belmont Park.  Let’s take a look at all things Belmont, as the meet begins Friday. The major difference between Belmont Park [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>Spring is in the air, even if temperatures across the country are well below average.  There’s no better sign of the new season being upon us than racing in New York shifting to beautiful Belmont Park.  Let’s take a look at all things Belmont, as the meet begins Friday.</p>
<p>The major difference between Belmont Park and basically every other racetrack in North America, is the circumference of the main oval.  It is a staggering 12 furlongs around, which leads to virtually every race being run around one turn.</p>
<p>One misnomer about Belmont Park is that the main track features a long stretch.  The stretch at Belmont Park is actually the shortest of any dirt oval at NYRA racetracks.  At 1,097 feet, it is over 50 feet shorter than Aqueduct’s stretch and over 40 feet shorter than Saratoga’s stretch.</p>
<p>The turf courses at Belmont are some of the best in the world.  The Widener turf accommodates distances up to one mile around one turn, and one mile and a sixteenth races are run with a slight dogleg in the first furlong.  Races run at a mile and a sixteenth on the inner turf often favor horses with inside posts, as they save precious ground in the opening quarter-mile.</p>
<p>The move to Belmont also brings about the return of turf sprints, as we will be treated to an abundance of 6 furlong sprints on the inner turf and occasionally the Widener course.  These races can be quite maddening, especially when the rails are out from the hedge.  Treat each one as an individual race and watch out for wide trips, and/or moves made against the grain of the race.</p>
<p>Certain trainers point to Belmont, and there’s no better example than Christophe Clement.  Over the last five years, he has won more races on turf at Belmont than any other trainer by a tremendous margin.  His tally of 121 wins is better than 60 victories ahead of the next closest pursuer.  His turf starters also have an ROI of $2.04 during that stretch, which is a tremendously strong number.  He will unleash a number of turfers who are ready to roll at this stand, so pay particular attention.</p>
<p>Obviously, the Belmont Stakes takes center stage at this meet.  There are, however, a number of big races from start to finish at the meet.  Saturday’s Westchester is shaping up as a race that’s far better than your average Grade III.  The Memorial Day program will be highlighted by the Met Mile, a race the Westchester serves as a prep for, on a card that also features the Acorn, Ogden Phipps and Sands Point.</p>
<p>With Ramon Dominguez sidelined likely for the whole meet, the riding title is up for grabs.  The leading candidate for top jockey is Javier Castellano, who will ride here regularly after the Kentucky Derby.  Joel Rosario figures to contend as well, as he is soon to finish a record-breaking Keeneland meet.</p>
<p>We can rejoice that spring is here and summer is soon to arrive, and let Belmont’s opening usher in the new season!</p>
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		<title>Ten Biggest Disappointments of 2012</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/ten-biggest-disappointments-of-2012/</link>
		<comments>http://www.nicktammaro.com/ten-biggest-disappointments-of-2012/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Dec 2012 22:13:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1161</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[SURPRISES, DISAPPOINTMENTS OF 2012 By Nick Tammaro The year is soon to come to an end, so it&#8217;s time to recap some of what we&#8217;ve seen over the last 12 months.  I&#8217;ll do it in two parts.  The first of those will be the 10 most disappointing horses of 2012.  Next week, I&#8217;ll recap the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><div>
<p><strong>SURPRISES, DISAPPOINTMENTS OF 2012</strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">By Nick Tammaro</span></strong></p>
<p>The year is soon to come to an end, so it&#8217;s time to recap some of what we&#8217;ve seen over the last 12 months.  I&#8217;ll do it in two parts.  The first of those will be the 10 most disappointing horses of 2012.  Next week, I&#8217;ll recap the 10 most surprising horses of the year.  So, without further adieu, here we go:</p>
<p><strong>10.) CALEB&#8217;S POSSE</strong></p>
<p>First things first, I am and will always be a Caleb&#8217;s Posse fan.  He was one of the most unlucky losers of any race in 2012.  And it happened three times.  After his Met Mile defeat, he seemed destined to get back in the winner&#8217;s circle in a major race.  An injury ended his year, and for a 4YO who won an Eclipse Award and two Grade Is as a 3YO, his 2012 season was disappointing.</p>
<p><strong>9.) ROUSING SERMON/LIAISON</strong></p>
<p>I&#8217;m treating these two as a pair since they have some similarities.  They closed out 2011 with a 1-2 finish in the CashCall Futurity and looked to be among California&#8217;s best Derby hopefuls this year.  They were the two favorites in the Robert Lewis in February, a race eventually won by I&#8217;ll Have Another.  Fast forward just over 10 months and they were a combined 0-16.  Neither could break through in softer races in the summer and fall and were both colossal disappointments.</p>
<p><strong>8.) HANSEN</strong></p>
<p>One thing that Hansen did that #s 9 and 10 on this list did not do in 2012 was win a race.  In fact, he won two.  However, his defeat in the Blue Grass, lackluster performance in the Kentucky Derby and loss in the West Virginia Derby, followed by an abrupt retirement left me expecting more from the 2011 Eclipse Award winning 2YO.</p>
<p><strong>7.) MR. COMMONS</strong></p>
<p>After a handy win in the Sir Beaufort, his final start as a 3YO, and another in the Arcadia, it seemed as if Mr. Commons was destined to become California&#8217;s top turfer.  He then rattled off 6 consecutive defeats at 4/5, 3/5, 2-1, 7/2, 3/2 before going off at 20-1 in the Breeders&#8217; Cup Mile.  Much was expected in 2012 and nothing was delivered.</p>
<p><strong>6.) TURALLURE</strong><br />
A nose seprated Turallure from a Breeders&#8217; Cup Mile win in 2011.  He was given some time to get ready for 2012 and returned with a solid run in the Maker&#8217;s 46 Mile.  Subsequent poor efforts in the Turf Classic and Firecracker showed the bloom was off his rose and he was retired in the middle of the season.  Trainer Charles Lopresti had no explanation for his poor performances at Churchill, but luckily redeemed himself with a freak named Wise Dan.</p>
<p><strong>5.) ZAZU</strong></p>
<p>The big gray filly was supposed to be a force in the distaff division in California.  She ended 2011 with a win in the Lady&#8217;s Secret before suffering an injury preparing for the Breeders&#8217; Cup Ladies Classic.  Her lone start in 2012 came in the Marjorie Everett, where she went off at 9/5 and never made an impact.  She was retired shortly thereafter and finished her career with a great deal of unfulfilled potential.</p>
<p><strong>4.) AMAZOMBIE</strong></p>
<p>The 2011 Eclipse Award winning sprinter ran six times in 2012 and did win a Grade I.  However, he was in position for further Breeders&#8217; Cup glory before being beaten as the 4/5 favorite in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship and 7/2 favorite in the Sprint.  While most would be quite proud if their horse won a Grade II and Grade I in a 6 race campaign, Amazombie was supposed to be at the top of his game all year in 2012.</p>
<p><strong>3.) BRILLIANT SPEED</strong></p>
<p>A Grade I winner who closed out a productive campaign with a 3rd place finish in the Breeders&#8217; Cup Turf, Brilliant Speed was expected to be a top shelf grasser in 2012.  He went 0-7 and didn&#8217;t even crack the exacta in any of those starts.  His embarrassing campaign ended with an 11th place finish in the Breeders&#8217; Cup Classic.</p>
<p><strong>2.) HAVRE DE GRACE</strong></p>
<p>The 2011 Horse of the Year made her 2012 debut in the New Orleans Ladies at Fair Grounds.  It was the 2nd time in 3 years that the NO Ladies featured the reigning HOTY, but this time she was successful.  However, that was all we got from Havre de Grace in 2012.  She was certainly special when at the top of her game, but Havre de Grace was supposed to be around for long enough in 2012 to cement her place in racing history.  She was not, and that&#8217;s disappointing.</p>
<p><strong>1.) UNION RAGS</strong></p>
<p>It had been years since we had seen a more highly regarded 2YO who did not win the Eclipse Award.  That was the case with Union Rags, who was at the top of nearly every Derby list headed into 2012.  After winning the Fountain of Youth, he was beaten in the Florida and Kentucky Derbies.  Most feel redemption came for him in the Belmont, but that was truthfully a weak race run in a slow final time featuring a number of glorified allowance horses.  Union Rags was supposed to be in the conversation for the 3YO Eclipse Award in 2012, but his brief and disappointing campaign kept that from occurring.</p>
<p>Well that&#8217;s it for the 10 biggest disappointments of 2012.  I&#8217;ll be back next week with the surprises.  My analysis will return on Wednesday, 12/26 and will be available every NYRA racing day moving forward.  Best of luck and thanks for reading!</p>
<p><em>Follow Nick Tammaro on Twitter @NTamm1215</em></p>
</div>
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		<title>Saratoga 2012 is on the horizon</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/saratoga-2012-is-on-the-horizon/</link>
		<comments>http://www.nicktammaro.com/saratoga-2012-is-on-the-horizon/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jul 2012 01:14:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1158</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2012 Saratoga meet will get underway in the next few days.  This is the annual holiday season for racing fans, as we will be treated to 15 Grade I races on the flat and a total of 34 graded stakes.  Here are some horses to watch at the meet, as well as a few [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>The 2012 Saratoga meet will get underway in the next few days.  This is the annual holiday season for racing fans, as we will be treated to 15 Grade I races on the flat and a total of 34 graded stakes.  Here are some horses to watch at the meet, as well as a few helpful angles for the 40 day stand.</p>
<p>There are 13 trainers who have started at least a total of 200 horses at Saratoga between 2007 and 2011.  Those thirteen trainers are Todd Pletcher, Gary Contessa, Bill Mott, Linda Rice, D. Wayne Lukas, Kiaran McLaughlin, Nick Zito, Steve Asmussen, George Weaver, Kenny McPeek, Rick Dutrow, Jr., Barclay Tagg, and Bruce Levine.  Of that baker’s dozen, only one trainer has a positive ROI during that stretch.  That honor belongs to George Weaver, who has hit at a 17% clip with a $2.22 ROI.  He had a relatively quiet 2011 meet by his standards, winning with just 13% of his starters, good for a $1.52 ROI.  However, it’s worth noting that three of his seven wins at the meet came in the first two weeks of the meet.</p>
<p>When analyzing the performances of various trainers at Saratoga, you can’t help but take note of the success enjoyed by Todd Pletcher.  Since 2007, he has won at a 19% clip at the toughest meet in America.  However, you’ll have a hard time breaking even betting his trainees.  His ROI from 2007-2011 is a paltry $1.32.  Races for 2 year-olds are held in high esteem at Saratoga, and Pletcher has been typically solid in those as well.  However, two other well-known trainers have had tremendous success with 2YOs overall.  They are Steve Asmussen, who is 25% with 2YOs over the last five years, good for a $2.35 ROI.  That sample includes well over 100 starters.  The other is Chad Brown, whose strike rate with juveniles is 28% from a small sample of 43.  A very strong 2010 meet helped Brown’s numbers all in all, as he has a $3.14 ROI with all 2YOs over the last 5 seasons (of which Brown has had horses for 4).</p>
<p>Looking for “small-time” trainers who have done well at Saratoga?  The following 8 trainers have a positive ROI over the last 5 years with at least 100 starters: Mike Hushion, Bill Badgett, Rick Violette, Tony Dutrow, Graham Motion, Mike Maker, Dominick Schettino, Rick Schosberg.  Given that Maker has expanded his presence in NY and that Hushion finished the Belmont meet strongly after a slow start, they are two trainers to watch early in the meet.</p>
<p>Who in the star studded jockey colony will take advantage of John Velazquez potentially missing the first 10 cards of the meet?  One would have to say that Gulfstream leading rider Javier Castellano, who has finished 2<sup>nd</sup> at this meet in each of the two years, will be a frequent visitor to the winner’s circle.  Ramon Dominguez recently won his 4<sup>th</sup> straight Belmont spring title, and will look to take his 2<sup>nd</sup> Saratoga title.  He has plenty of business with successful trainers and will be on many live horses.  Saratoga has been a house of horrors for Jose Lezcano, who had a very strong Belmont meet.  He won at a 13% clip in 2011, with just a $1.01 ROI.  In 2010, he was 6% with a $0.65 ROI and in 2009 he was 8% with a $1.18 ROI.  He has arguably never been better in his career, and seems poised to reverse the trend this year.</p>
<p>What about horses to watch at this meet?  With the Prioress now at Belmont, 3YO fillies will have their only 2 opportunities of the year to run in Grade I races at less than a mile against their own age group.  Jamaican Smoke ran a tremendously impressive race in the Victory Ride at Belmont on July 7.  She buried the heavily favored Agave Kiss and held gamely before being collared late by longshot Emma’s Encore.  She will be very interesting in both the Prioress and Test.  Other stakes horses slated to run twice are Coaching Club American Oaks probables, Zo Impressive, Disposablepleasure and In Lingerie, among others.  Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Stephanie’s Kitten is supposed to make her 2<sup>nd</sup> start of 2012 in the Lake George on July 25.  She will meet recent Regret winner Centre Court and a field of talented 3YO fillies.  Also in the first two weeks of the meet, 4 titans in the turf distaff division will square off in the Diana.  That is where the 1-2-3 finishers in the Just A Game will meet again, as Tapitsfly, Winter Memories, and Hungry Island will be joined by 2011 winner Zagora.  That will be a horse race.</p>
<p>There’s no doubt that the meet will be one for the ages.  The gargantuan purses ensure a high level of competition on a regular basis, as all starters will run for significant money.  My selections will be available each and every race day on saratogabets.com.</p>
<p><em>Follow Nick Tammaro on Twitter @NTamm1215</em></p>
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		<title>Will Treasure Beach continue O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s amazing run?</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/will-treasure-beach-continue-obriens-amazing-run/</link>
		<comments>http://www.nicktammaro.com/will-treasure-beach-continue-obriens-amazing-run/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Jul 2012 02:17:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Handicapping]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1154</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From 2007-2010, international super-trainer Aidan O&#8217;Brien went a measly 2-34 with all North American starters.  His lone winners were Man of Iron in the 2009 Breeders&#8217; Cup Marathon and Joshua Tree in the 2010 Canadian International.  Neither were longshots, so O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s ROI with those 34 runners was just $0.76.  However, things went radically different in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>From 2007-2010, international super-trainer Aidan O&#8217;Brien went a measly 2-34 with all North American starters.  His lone winners were Man of Iron in the 2009 Breeders&#8217; Cup Marathon and Joshua Tree in the 2010 Canadian International.  Neither were longshots, so O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s ROI with those 34 runners was just $0.76.  However, things went radically different in 2011.</p>
<p>Beginning with Cape Blanco&#8217;s win in the Man O&#8217;War, O&#8217;Brien went an amazing 7-23 in America, winning the Arlington Million, Secretariat, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Breeders&#8217; Cup Juvenile Turf and Breeders&#8217; Cup Turf.  His ROI was $3.25 for all American starters on the year, erasing the memories of a poor run from 2007-2010.</p>
<p>What was it that made O&#8217;Brien so active in America in 2011?  First and foremost, our turf racing is very weak.  Many of our top level turf horse would be reduced to serving as pacesetters for their more fancied stablemates in Europe.  Such is the case with recent American participants Wrote and Daddy Long Legs.  Cape Blanco also happened to be a horse who was co-owned by Fitri Hay.  A Jakartan businesswoman, Hay has blossomed into a world renown &#8220;fashionista&#8221; whose horses have competed in America in recent years.  Hawthorne Gold Cup winner Redding Colliery is owned by Hay.  Thus, Hay&#8217;s involvement in American racing made Cape Blanco visiting America even more likely in 2011.</p>
<p>Hay bought into Treasure Beach late last year so that he could run in Dubai over the winter.  He started in the Dubai Sheema Classic on the Dubai World Cup undercard.  Sent off as the 4th choice in a very contentious field, he wound up finishing 4th, less than 4 lengths behind his talented stablemate, St. Nicholas Abbey.  A failed trip to Hong Kong left Treasure Beach America-bound, where he&#8217;ll look to become O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s 2nd straight Man O&#8217; War winner.</p>
<p>Treasure Beach, unlike Cape Blanco in this race a year ago, has experience running in North America.  He won a stirring rendition of the Arlington Million last year, snagging an impressive Beyer figure of 105 in his game triumph.  He crossed the pond again to run in the Canadian International and wound up a solid 3rd behind the runaway winner.  His running style fits American racing quite well, as he has the speed to stay within range from the outset.  The Man O&#8217;War is a turf marathon that looks like it will actually be run at a relatively decent early clip.  That will enable Jamie Spencer, who rode Cape Blanco in his 3 wins in America last year, to settle him a bit off the pace before pouncing late.  In a race where his rivals seem overmatched, Treasure Beach will be heavily favored to continue his trainer&#8217;s amazing American run.</p>
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		<title>Monmouth struggling mightily in first meet controlled by horsemen</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/monmouth-struggling-mightily-in-first-meet-controlled-by-horsemen/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jul 2012 19:38:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1151</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The long and storied history of racing in New Jersey cannot help but keep it from almost certain ruin.  After a potential agreement between the state and casino owner Morris Bailey fell apart, Monmouth&#8217;s fate seemed dire.  The horsemen have now taken over, with Dennis Drazin serving as an adviser to the NJTHA, which is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>The long and storied history of racing in New Jersey cannot help but keep it from almost certain ruin.  After a potential agreement between the state and casino owner Morris Bailey fell apart, Monmouth&#8217;s fate seemed dire.  The horsemen have now taken over, with Dennis Drazin serving as an adviser to the NJTHA, which is the leaseholder at the seaside facility.</p>
<p>When New Jersey governor Chris Christie made it clear that the state was getting out of the racing business, help was obviously needed.  Jeff Gural, a racetrack owner, jumped in to purchase the Meadowlands.  Bailey was supposed to become the new owner of Monmouth Park, but that relationship fizzled.  Now, the horsemen who are in control would like to see Monmouth turned into a year-round resort destination.  They would like to build on solid on-track business and gain control of the state&#8217;s OTW facilities.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s only one problem with this plan.  Monmouth&#8217;s business thus far in 2012 has been awful.  Through the first 22 days of the meet, Monmouth&#8217;s 248 races have handled a total of $94,577,294.  The total of 248 races is down almost 10% from 272 through the first 22 days of the 2011 stand.  During that same 22 day period in 2011, total handle was $113,085,015.  That represents a 16% decrease this meet, a number that is almost unheard of, even in the poor current economic times.  The only positive category for the racetrack is on-track attendance, which is up almost 5% for the meet.  However, on-track handle is down 11%.  After a Father&#8217;s Day program where over 27,000 people attended, Monmouth was praised in most racing publications.  However, no one brought up that the on-track and total handle for the card was down from Father&#8217;s Day a year ago.</p>
<p>So, what is going wrong at Monmouth?  They spent the first three weeks of the meet starting at an identical time to Belmont Park, which wrecked handle on the first 2-3 races of the card.  Any good racetrack executive will tell you that if players in simulcast land are not paying attention to your signal after 3 races, they&#8217;re unlikely to find you at all.  Field size is also down from 7.75 per race to 7.58.  That is particularly problematic when you consider that they have lost just 3 turf races for the entire meet and are running fewer races all in all.</p>
<p>What are the potential causes for such a steep decrease?  Obviously the business in New York is stronger than it was last year.  The influx of money from the VLT casino at Aqueduct has greatly increased the purses offered at NYRA racetracks.  However, I see one of Monmouth&#8217;s major problems coming from across the Delaware rather than the Hudson.  The presence of Delaware Park, Parx Racing, Penn National, Charles Town, and Colonial at this time of year is just ghastly.  Throw in Presque Isle Downs, and you have six racetracks that are too close to each other running too many races.  The glut of racing in the mid-Atlantic is an epidemic and one that will lead to major problems down the road if unaddressed.</p>
<p>Monmouth generally has a busy July, with their two Grade I races run during the month.  The first of those two will be the United Nations Handicap, run this Saturday on a program that includes the repositioned Monmouth Cup.  It will be quite interesting to see if the current trend continues, as Monmouth is in a hole for the meet that seems too large to escape.</p>
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		<title>Time for mid-season awards</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/time-for-mid-season-awards/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2012 22:59:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1148</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This upcoming weekend will bring about the end of the first half of 2012, so it seems like a good time to take a look at the top performers from the last six months.  Obviously, there&#8217;s no way to put together a list of 2YOs at this point, but that will be forthcoming post-Saratoga and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>This upcoming weekend will bring about the end of the first half of 2012, so it seems like a good time to take a look at the top performers from the last six months.  Obviously, there&#8217;s no way to put together a list of 2YOs at this point, but that will be forthcoming post-Saratoga and Del Mar.</p>
<p><strong>OLDER HORSE: Ron the Greek</strong></p>
<p>Of all the great work that Bill Mott has done over the years, and his career has been incredible, Ron the Greek might be his best training job.  He has won two Grade Is with this son of Full Mandate, who looked like an allowance horse at this time one year ago.  Has he benefited from positive circumstances?  Sure, but he has delivered when it mattered most, winning two of the country&#8217;s most prestigious races, the Santa Anita Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap.</p>
<p><strong>OLDER FEMALE: It&#8217;s Tricky</strong></p>
<p>The distaff division in California is awful.  Thus, the three graded stakes wins for It&#8217;s Tricky make her the best in this division to this point.  After kicking off her 2012 campaign with a win in the Top Flight at 1 1/16 miles, she cut back to win the Distaff at Aqueduct before winning the Ogden Phipps at Belmont.  She is expected to stretch out to 10 furlongs in the Delaware Handicap, where she will tangle with Royal Delta, the filly who could end up on top of this division in five months.<br />
<strong>HONORABLE MENTION: Royal Delta</strong></p>
<p><strong>TURF MALE: Little Mike</strong></p>
<p>This division is very much up in the air, especially with Manhattan winner Desert Blanc now on the sidelines.  Little Mike has just one graded stake win, but it was the Woodford Reserve at Churchill on the Kentucky Derby undercard.  He has an opportunity to add to his resume in a big way if he can win the Shoemaker Mile at Hollywood on Saturday.  The fleet-footed Little Mike has had difficulty staying healthy for an entire campaign, but he is a tough customer when on his game.</p>
<p><strong>TURF FEMALE: Zagora</strong></p>
<p>The memories of Zagora&#8217;s failed bid in the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland are fresh.  However, that was her only blemish through a four-race stretch where she picked up graded stakes wins in the Hillsborough, Endeavour, and Gallorette.  Trainer Chad Brown has taken a relatively easy path with her thus far, but she&#8217;ll face 3 titans in this division when she defends her Diana title in late July at Saratoga.<br />
<strong>HONORABLE MENTION: Tapitsfly</strong></p>
<p><strong>SPRINTER: Shackleford</strong></p>
<p>One of the debates that always ensues as the Eclipse Awards are decided on at the end of the year is how you categorize one mile races.  Shackleford won the best of them all, as he took the Met Mile in a stirring rendition back on May 28.  He also won the Churchill Downs over 2011 Eclipse Award winner Amazombie.  The horses on the west coast in this division will battle in Saturday&#8217;s Triple Bend Handicap at Hollywood Park.  If The Factor is able to live up to his endless hype, he could vault himself into contention for this award.</p>
<p><strong>FEMALE SPRINTER: Groupie Doll</strong></p>
<p>This is an easy one.  The talented &#8220;Buff&#8221; Bradley trainee rattled off two Grade I wins in 23 days between April and May.  She is currently sidelined, but is expected to appear at Saratoga later this summer.  Her ability to handle any surface and versatile running style make her a threat in any race.  It took Bradley some time to determine the ideal trip for Groupie Doll, but she has proven to be very tough at 7 furlongs.  With a healthy Turbulent Descent out west, she will have a major impact on the division leading up to the fall.  Following the A Gleam at Hollywood in July, there&#8217;s a major void in the female sprint division out west.  Here&#8217;s to hoping Turbulent Descent returns to Saratoga and tries Groupie Doll in the Ballerina.</p>
<p><strong>3 YEAR-OLD: I&#8217;ll Have Another</strong></p>
<p>This is a really easy one.  I don&#8217;t envision any change in this division, barring something totally unforeseen from another three year-old.  Who are the horses who could potentially knock him off in this division?  Union Rags would need two more graded stakes wins to match I&#8217;ll Have Another&#8217;s four, and at least one of those would have to come in the Travers.  Bodemeister has one graded stakes win, but is likely to pick up another in the Haskell next month.  He was beaten twice by I&#8217;ll Have Another and would probably have to beat older horses to have a legitimate shot at the award.  Paynter is miles behind and Dullahan&#8217;s poor effort in the Belmont seemed to stop any momentum he had built.</p>
<p><strong>3 YEAR-OLD FILLY:</strong> <strong>Believe You Can</strong></p>
<p>As the only 3 year-old filly with a Grade I win and another graded stakes win, she has an edge at this point.  Her trip in the Mother Goose was far from ideal, which earns her another chance in the upcoming CCA Oaks and Alabama at Saratoga.  Her talent is clear, but she is going to need to rebound strongly at the Spa.</p>
<p><strong>TRAINER: Dale Romans</strong></p>
<p>Wins in the Blue Grass, Woodford Reserve, Met Mile, and Just A Game earn you this title.  Dale Romans has been on an incredible tear for the last two years, especially in Grade I races.  He has a giant stable of stars that will certainly be active over the next few months.</p>
<p><strong>JOCKEY: Ramon Dominguez</strong></p>
<p>Even though he went 0-3 in the Triple Crown races, Dominguez picked up a pair of Grade I wins on the Belmont undercard and has been the most consistent rider in big races thus far this year.  Clearly, this is a division that is influx as the year progresses.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a look at who some of the best performers are for the first half of 2012.  I&#8217;ll be back next week with a look at the Independence Day weekend stakes races!  Saratoga starts four weeks from Friday!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Dubai bounce nothing more than myth</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/dubai-bounce-nothing-more-than-myth/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jun 2012 13:43:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1145</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[First, Game on Dude won the Californian for fun at Hollywood Park.  Then, two weeks later, Royal Delta made a mockery of five overmatched rivals in the Fleur de Lis.  Both of these wins were tremendous for numerous reasons.  Perhaps the most significant was the fact that each of these stars were making their respective [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>First, Game on Dude won the Californian for fun at Hollywood Park.  Then, two weeks later, Royal Delta made a mockery of five overmatched rivals in the Fleur de Lis.  Both of these wins were tremendous for numerous reasons.  Perhaps the most significant was the fact that each of these stars were making their respective first start since traveling to Dubai to race in the world’s richest horse race.</p>
<p>American horses have virtually dominated the Dubai World Cup, as 8 winners have shipped over from the US.  Since racing in Dubai was moved to Meydan, American horses have had more difficulty, with the only win coming from Kinsale King in the 2010 Golden Shaheen.  The installation of a synthetic surface at Meydan certainly hurt the dirt-oriented Americans.  However, the thought that sending a horse to Dubai effectively wrecked any chance they had for future success has also been prevalent.  We’ve heard the terms “Dubai bounce” or “Dubai jinx.”  Royal Delta and Game on Dude happen to be the two most recent examples of this being patently untrue.</p>
<p>In 2012, six American horses shipped to Dubai for the richest night of races in the world.  Royal Delta and Game on Dude have already been victorious since returning.  The only other participant to run since was the ill-fated Giant Ryan.  The Factor is slated to run in the Triple Bend at Hollywood Park on June 30 while Lucky Chappy and Regally Ready are training for their next race.</p>
<p>In 2011, only one American runner contested the Dubai World Cup, the venerable Gio Ponti.  He finished in the money in the Manhattan, Man O’War and Arlington Million before winning the Shadwell Turf Mile in October.  His career ended with a 4<sup>th</sup> place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Churchill Downs.  Other competitors from that evening were Bourbon Bay, who has won two graded stakes since, Champ Pegasus, who is graded stakes placed since, and Victor’s Cry, who finished third in the Grade I Shoemaker Mile last June.  Euroears returned from Dubai to win the Grade I Bing Crosby at Del Mar.  Mr. Gruff competed in the Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai and has since won two stakes in his home state of California.  Make Music for Me has won twice since returning and is stakes-placed.  I Want Revenge was a bit long in the tooth when he made his trip to Dubai, but came back to place in two stakes in New York.</p>
<p>In 2010, Richard’s Kid and Gio Ponti competed in the Dubai World Cup.  Each came back to America and won multiple Grade I races later in that year.  Furthest Land, who was last in the World Cup, won his 2<sup>nd</sup> start stateside after returning.  Take the Points hit the board in two Grade I races after his trip and The Usual Q.T. won the Grade I Eddie Read.  Courageous Cat needed some extra time to come back but won the Poker and Shoemaker Mile in 2011.  Kinsale King came out of his Golden Shaheen win to finish 3<sup>rd</sup> at Ascot in the King’s Stand and California Flag is back on the beam after his 2010 trip, having won three stakes since (two graded).</p>
<p>Curlin came back from Dubai to win the Stephen Foster, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Indian Blessing came back to win a Grade II and place in a Grade I.  Force Freeze eventually came to America and looked like the best sprinter in the country before suffering an injury.  Benny the Bull returned to America to win the True North and Smile Sprint.  Informed came back home and immediately won the Californian.</p>
<p>If this lengthy list doesn’t convince you, there are more.  For the sake of brevity, I’ll stop there without discussing horses like Invasor, Discreet Cat and Diabolical.  Clearly, when someone says the words “Dubai bounce” to you, let them know that the notion is a misnomer.  While American participation in the Dubai World Cup program will never reach the level it was ten years ago, the majority of our horses end up no worse for wear.  The elusive $6 million prize will still have a great deal  of appeal to American horsemen, and I hope they take the chance and make the long voyage.</p>
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		<title>Perspectives on Belmont 144</title>
		<link>http://www.nicktammaro.com/perspectives-on-belmont-144/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jun 2012 02:26:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2012 Derby Trail]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nicktammaro.com/?p=1142</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Roughly 32 hours before the Belmont Stakes was scheduled to be run, I sat outside the Belmont Cafe speaking with Steve Byk on At the Races.  We were about halfway through the graded stakes that were to be run between Friday and Saturday.  Shortly before a scheduled commercial break, Steve let his audience know that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>Roughly 32 hours before the Belmont Stakes was scheduled to be run, I sat outside the Belmont Cafe speaking with Steve Byk on At the Races.  We were about halfway through the graded stakes that were to be run between Friday and Saturday.  Shortly before a scheduled commercial break, Steve let his audience know that word was spreading like wildfire that I&#8217;ll Have Another had an issue that could keep him from running in the Belmont.  Over the course of the next ten minutes, the whispers became roars and the suspicions became facts, as we learned by noon that I&#8217;ll Have Another would be scratched with the announcement coming at a 1:00 PM press conference.</p>
<p>The immediate reaction I had was that the show would undoubtedly go on.  There were terrific betting opportunities between Friday and Saturday and a Triple Crown race would still happen, whether I&#8217;ll Have Another participated or not.  Perhaps when you become a hardened horseplayer who is all too familiar with disappointment, you don&#8217;t really let yourself get down too much.  Of all involved, I felt the worst for NYRA.  A tremendous amount of work had already been done to that point by the folks in the racing office, the press office, the marketing department, and so many more.  However, what unfolded over the next 32 hours ensured that work did not go for naught.</p>
<p>Belmont day began with weather similar to what had been seen earlier in the week, with only slightly more overcast skies.  Rain was in the forecast, but there were no more than a few drops at any point during the day.  The glorious old facility that hosts the &#8220;Test of the Champion&#8221; was primed for a special day, even if the expected crowd was to be reduced by 50% or so.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s talk about all of the things that the New York Racing Association did well on Belmont day.  Despite 85,000 people being in attendance, the lines for food, alcohol, wagering, and restrooms never really lengthened.  If one wanted a bottle of water at 3:00 in the afternoon, it could be had with no waiting.  The Heritage Club on the 3rd floor was poetry in motion, as patrons were asked to buy vouchers for food just outside the facility and present those at the individual areas inside.  At roughly 2:00, this process took no more than 10 minutes.</p>
<p>The paddock was absolutely packed all day, but those inside and outside were able to move efficiently, as a large amount of security was in place guaranteeing the safety of all patrons.  Once you made it to a reserved seat, if you had purchased one, you could be sure that the number of people loitering on steps and in seats that did not belong to them was minimal.  Hats off to the usher in section P of the upper tier of the preferred grandstand, who did a phenomenal job all day long.</p>
<p>While the crowd was somewhat slow to gather, it was standing room only by the time the Manhattan was run at roughly 5:30.  The cheers buffeted from all areas of the behemoth grandstand, exhibiting the enthusiasm of a crowd that has become far too scarce at Belmont.  When Union Rags made his way back to the winner&#8217;s circle, loud cheers went his direction, as he had finally realized the potential so many believed he had for the prior 6 months.</p>
<p>Many congratulations to the fine employees of NYRA who made the day so special for so many.  Times have not been terribly easy for NYRA of late, but the job that was done on Saturday is one that should not soon be forgotten.</p>
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