All eyes are going to be on Pimlico Race Course this weekend, as the Preakness will take place on Saturday afternoon.  Orb is expected to go postward as a heavy favorite, as his stiffest competition from the Kentucky Derby will be resting in their stalls when he enters the gate in Baltimore.

The most notable new shooter for Orb to tackle in the Preakness is Departing.  A consistent son of war Front, Departing enters the Preakness off of a smashing win at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby.  He rated comfortably just off the pace while wide that day, swooped in when ready, took over and drew clear.  The other notable non-Derby competitor is Govenor Charlie, who has been off since winning the Sunland Derby.  On the topic of these two, note that no horse who has been off for more than 21 days has won the Preakness since Red Bullet 13 years ago.

There are two horses in the Preakness who finished towards the back of the pack in the Kentucky Derby.  They are Itsmyluckyday (15th) and Goldencents (17th).  No horse since Louis Quatorze 17 years ago has won the Preakness after finishing worse than 10th in the Derby.  This statistic has a lot do with the fact that a 14-day turnaround is awfully quick for a horse who clearly had something go wrong.

Louis Quatorze is notable as well, because he is the last horse to win the Preakness after having the lead at every point of call.  Shackleford was very close to the pace two years ago, but he rated just off of Flashpoint.  The Preakness rewards horses who can finish, as the taxing distance and configuration lends itself to strong early gallops.

All of these things items seem to work in Orb’s favor, as he has no distance limitations whatsoever, and should benefit from an expected solid early pace.  He has the versatility to stay closer to the pace if it is a tad slower, and that makes him strictly the one to beat.

The 2013 Preakness does not seem like a very appealing race from a betting perspective.  Other than the multi-race plays, it might be best to sit back as a fan and watch Orb chase history in Maryland.  Best of luck!

Follow Nick on Twitter @NTamm1215

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How 9 became 0

by Nick on May 12, 2013

In early March, it seemed reasonable to think that Bob Baffert could have as many as 9 potential Kentucky Derby starters.  One by one, his horses fell off the radar, culminating in Monday’s announcement that he would not have a Derby starter.  Let’s take a look at how 9 became 0.

After his win in the Southwest, Super Ninety Nine was among Baffert’s best Derby hopefuls.  He went back to Oaklawn for the Rebel and tired badly late after chasing the pace.  The SA Derby was his shot at redemption, and he once again weakened in crunch time.  Sprints are in his future.

Flashback’s narrow mis in the San Felipe was his best race to date and seemed to set him up as one of California’s best Derby prospects.  He was injured coming out of the SA Derby and won’t be seen anytime soon.

Code West narrowly missed in the Risen Star and needed just a 3rd place finish or better in the Louisiana Derby.  He missed the mark by tiring badly late, taking the Derby out of the equation.

Shakin It Up went to Sunland for his first stakes try in a route race.  He finished fourth behind stablemate Govenor Charlie in that race, and never really threatened for a placing.

Tiz the Truth scored a romping maiden win the same day Flashback won the Robert Lewis.  He ran into a myriad of injury problems and is currently sidelined.

Baffert rushed Power Broker back to contest the SA Derby in his first start of 2013.  He was a total no-show, checking in a well-beaten fifth at 5-1.  He is still training for a 2nd start of the year.

Den’s Legacy had numerous opportunities to stamp himself a Derby candidate, but he came up empty in each try.  He is a useful horse who has picked up a number of checks, but whether he is legitimately graded stakes caliber is still a question.

War Academy was supposed to be a last ditch Derby candidate after winning an allowance race in March.  The Arkansas Derby was his Derby prep, and he went off as the favorite in a field of nine.  He was pulled up on the backstretch and is in training at Churchill Downs for a possible start in the Preakness.

Govenor Charlie was supposed to be Baffert’s lone Derby starter.  He won the Sunland Derby in late March and was training for the Run for the Roses early last month.  An injury to his foot derailed those plans, and the reports on his training recently at Churchill have been ghastly.

It has been a difficult spring for Baffert, even with Game on Dude starting his season 3-0.  He will certainly be back on the 3YO scene very soon, but this was as deflating a series as you’ll see for a Hall of Famer of Baffert’s caliber.

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Belmont Preview

May 12, 2013

Spring is in the air, even if temperatures across the country are well below average.  There’s no better sign of the new season being upon us than racing in New York shifting to beautiful Belmont Park.  Let’s take a look at all things Belmont, as the meet begins Friday. The major difference between Belmont Park [...]

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Ten Biggest Disappointments of 2012

December 21, 2012

SURPRISES, DISAPPOINTMENTS OF 2012 By Nick Tammaro The year is soon to come to an end, so it’s time to recap some of what we’ve seen over the last 12 months.  I’ll do it in two parts.  The first of those will be the 10 most disappointing horses of 2012.  Next week, I’ll recap the [...]

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Saratoga 2012 is on the horizon

July 19, 2012

The 2012 Saratoga meet will get underway in the next few days.  This is the annual holiday season for racing fans, as we will be treated to 15 Grade I races on the flat and a total of 34 graded stakes.  Here are some horses to watch at the meet, as well as a few [...]

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Will Treasure Beach continue O’Brien’s amazing run?

July 11, 2012

From 2007-2010, international super-trainer Aidan O’Brien went a measly 2-34 with all North American starters.  His lone winners were Man of Iron in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Marathon and Joshua Tree in the 2010 Canadian International.  Neither were longshots, so O’Brien’s ROI with those 34 runners was just $0.76.  However, things went radically different in [...]

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Monmouth struggling mightily in first meet controlled by horsemen

July 4, 2012

The long and storied history of racing in New Jersey cannot help but keep it from almost certain ruin.  After a potential agreement between the state and casino owner Morris Bailey fell apart, Monmouth’s fate seemed dire.  The horsemen have now taken over, with Dennis Drazin serving as an adviser to the NJTHA, which is [...]

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Time for mid-season awards

June 27, 2012

This upcoming weekend will bring about the end of the first half of 2012, so it seems like a good time to take a look at the top performers from the last six months.  Obviously, there’s no way to put together a list of 2YOs at this point, but that will be forthcoming post-Saratoga and [...]

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Dubai bounce nothing more than myth

June 21, 2012

First, Game on Dude won the Californian for fun at Hollywood Park.  Then, two weeks later, Royal Delta made a mockery of five overmatched rivals in the Fleur de Lis.  Both of these wins were tremendous for numerous reasons.  Perhaps the most significant was the fact that each of these stars were making their respective [...]

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Perspectives on Belmont 144

June 11, 2012

Roughly 32 hours before the Belmont Stakes was scheduled to be run, I sat outside the Belmont Cafe speaking with Steve Byk on At the Races.  We were about halfway through the graded stakes that were to be run between Friday and Saturday.  Shortly before a scheduled commercial break, Steve let his audience know that [...]

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