All eyes are going to be on Pimlico Race Course this weekend, as the Preakness will take place on Saturday afternoon. Orb is expected to go postward as a heavy favorite, as his stiffest competition from the Kentucky Derby will be resting in their stalls when he enters the gate in Baltimore.
The most notable new shooter for Orb to tackle in the Preakness is Departing. A consistent son of war Front, Departing enters the Preakness off of a smashing win at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby. He rated comfortably just off the pace while wide that day, swooped in when ready, took over and drew clear. The other notable non-Derby competitor is Govenor Charlie, who has been off since winning the Sunland Derby. On the topic of these two, note that no horse who has been off for more than 21 days has won the Preakness since Red Bullet 13 years ago.
There are two horses in the Preakness who finished towards the back of the pack in the Kentucky Derby. They are Itsmyluckyday (15th) and Goldencents (17th). No horse since Louis Quatorze 17 years ago has won the Preakness after finishing worse than 10th in the Derby. This statistic has a lot do with the fact that a 14-day turnaround is awfully quick for a horse who clearly had something go wrong.
Louis Quatorze is notable as well, because he is the last horse to win the Preakness after having the lead at every point of call. Shackleford was very close to the pace two years ago, but he rated just off of Flashpoint. The Preakness rewards horses who can finish, as the taxing distance and configuration lends itself to strong early gallops.
All of these things items seem to work in Orb’s favor, as he has no distance limitations whatsoever, and should benefit from an expected solid early pace. He has the versatility to stay closer to the pace if it is a tad slower, and that makes him strictly the one to beat.
The 2013 Preakness does not seem like a very appealing race from a betting perspective. Other than the multi-race plays, it might be best to sit back as a fan and watch Orb chase history in Maryland. Best of luck!
Follow Nick on Twitter @NTamm1215
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